venturing.in

Surely, in the light of history, it is more intelligent to hope rather than to fear, to try rather than not to try. For one thing we know beyond all doubt: Nothing has ever been achieved by the person who says, ‘It can’t be done.’

– Eleanor Roosevelt

There are three steps to the Expectations Investing process, which are very logical… number one is understand price implied expectations. What we’re doing is using a sound cash flow model, so we’re mimicking first principles. But in this case, we’re not forecasting what we believe. We’re essentially asking, “what is priced into today’s stock?” Now we can be guided by things like consensus forecast, there’s certainly a component of art in this. But you’re basically saying, “what do I need to believe to justify today’s stock price?” By the way, this is best done with you being agnostic…the second step is identifying expectations opportunities and that’s going to have a couple components. The first is understanding historical results, then you’re going to do your strategy analysis and… figure out which trigger matters the most… and then the final step is just make buy and sell decisions. If you’re doing that last step properly, you’re going to have these outcomes and probabilities associated with them that allows us to estimate expected value and that allows us then to buy at a discount to that which is where we get margin of safety.

– Michael Mauboussin

If you just sit and observe, you will see how restless your mind is. If you try to calm it, it only makes it worse, but over time it does calm, and when it does, there’s room to hear more subtle things – that’s when your intuition starts to blossom and you start to see things more clearly and be in the present more. Your mind just slows down, and you see a tremendous expanse in the moment. You see so much more than you could see before. It’s a discipline; you have to practice it.

– Steve Jobs

To understand the future, you do not need technoautistic jargon, obsession with “killer apps,” these sort of things. You just need the following: some respect for the past, some curiosity about the historical record, a hunger for the wisdom of the elders, and a grasp of the notion of “heuristics,” these often unwritten rules of thumb that are so determining of survival. In other words, you will be forced to give weight to things that have been around, things that have survived.

– Nassim Taleb

No individual, deterministic machine, however universal this class of machines is proving to be, will ever think in the sense that we think. Intelligence may be ever-increasing among such
machines, but genuinely creative intuitive thinking requires nondeterministic machines that can make mistakes, abandon logic from one moment to the next, and learn. Thinking is not as logical as we think.

– George Dyson

Tact is the knack of making a point without making an enemy.

There’s no such thing as a worry-free investment. The trick is to separate the valid worries from the idle worries, and then check the worries against the facts.

– Peter Lynch

An expert is someone who, over many years, manages to remain confident enough to keep trying and humble enough to keep learning.

– Link

Planning and preparation are useful until they become a form of procrastination.

Is this task enhancing my actions or substituting for them?

– James Clear