If the world were static, we could have monotonically increasing confidence in our beliefs. The more (and more varied) experience a belief survived, the less likely it would be false. Most people implicitly believe something like this about their opinions. And they’re justified in doing so with opinions about things that don’t change much, like human nature. But you can’t trust your opinions in the same way about things that change, which could include practically everything else.
When experts are wrong, it’s often because they’re experts on an earlier version of the world.
All posts filed under “Notes”
Alchian-Allen Effect
Achieving Independence
One of the things that makes you independent is to accumulate capital because the capital can grow on its own. If you have enough capital, it will support you indefinitely. So when you’ve achieved that goal, there’s no point in spending time doing anything you don’t like doing if you can help it.
The Degree Of Diversity Attained and The Degree of Unity Retained
Barbarism is unified but undifferentiated; triviality is differentiated but lacking in any central unity; the ideal of civilization is the integration into a complete whole and with the minimum strain of the maximum number of distinct activities…a civilization [could] be judged by this double standard: the degree of diversity attained and the degree of unity retained
Value Creation vs Value Capture
Value creation is always a good first priority for new industries, but value capture ultimately matters a lot, too—especially because industries that can’t manage it are run by capital markets and professional managers rather than founders.
What Is Mathematics?
Mathematics is not a deductive science – that’s a cliche. When you try to prove a theorem, you don’t just list the hypotheses, and then start to reason. What you do is trial and error, experimentation, guesswork.
Live In The Present
It is impossible to live in the past, difficult to live in the present and a waste to live in the future.”
Education Is Entertainment
Anyone who tries to make a distinction between education and entertainment doesn’t know the first thing about either.
Using Tools Judiciously
Judicious use of a tool requires awareness of possible side effects and reactions. Otherwise, indiscriminate use may result in side effects and reactions outweighing the benefits…The cure is sometimes worse than the disease.