All posts filed under “Notes

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When Experts Are Wrong

If the world were static, we could have monotonically increasing confidence in our beliefs. The more (and more varied) experience a belief survived, the less likely it would be false. Most people implicitly believe something like this about their opinions. And they’re justified in doing so with opinions about things that don’t change much, like human nature. But you can’t trust your opinions in the same way about things that change, which could include practically everything else.

When experts are wrong, it’s often because they’re experts on an earlier version of the world.

– Paul Graham

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Achieving Independence

One of the things that makes you independent is to accumulate capital because the capital can grow on its own. If you have enough capital, it will support you indefinitely. So when you’ve achieved that goal, there’s no point in spending time doing anything you don’t like doing if you can help it.

– Ed Thorp