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Mapping The Value Migration Path

I don’t believe in valuations. I follow a migrationary path for the companies I invest in. We must be able to visualize the future. Take Gillette for example. Twin blades constitute mere 10% of the Indian marke. Bangladesh has 33% penetration. If India catches up with Bangladesh, Gillette will be a Rs 15,000 crore company having a net profit of Rs 2200 crores. At 40 times discounting, that’s Rs 27,000 per share. That is the migration path that a valuation cannot show In 1979, Hindustan Lever was a Rs 140 crore company. In 2013, its sales were Rs 27,000 crore. Again, only a migrationary thought process would have shown that and not valuation.

– Chandrakant Sampat