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Favourable Surprises

The things that everybody feels good about are likely to be the things that are high priced and the things that everybody feels bad about are likely to be low priced, so if you could find a stock that nobody thinks this company could ever have a good day, maybe there’s a chance that it could produce some favourable surprises and make you a lot of money.

We make money from favourable surprises, and if the positive conviction is so high, then by definition there can never be a favourable surprise.

– Howard Marks