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Surprises Shouldn’t Be Surprising

The habit of making decisions whose origins are so heavily weighted with retrospection is part of the process of change itself and part of the forces that shape the future. Rational expectations models so often go astray, in fact, because they are unable to accommodate this dynamic aspect of the process. More important, it is the main reason why surprise is so frequent in its occurrence and so shattering in its impact. Although human beings are always being taken by surprise, we have learned not to be surprised by surprise.

– Peter Bernstein