Confirmation Bias

Many investors – especially equity and growth equity investors – have a positive bias. People tend to look at negative developments and characterize them as isolated. They ignore contagion and second order consequences. In positive periods, investors engage in selective perception – they only see the good and skewed interpretation – whatever happens, people interpret it positively in a bull market. In recent years, the central bank, by pushing rates to zero, mandated that people – we can think of them as handcuffed volunteers – indulged in highly risky behaviour. The market eventually reached a tipping point where the reality could no longer be ignored.

Howard Marks